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Nobody Would Expect This

Paul Krugman:

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself. Fear and negative equity … The two things we have to fear are fear itself and negative equity, and the depleted capital of financial institutions … Amongst the things we have to fear are fear itself, negative equity, and the depleted capital of financial institutions.


How deeply systemic is the current economic problem? Is it limited to credit? It sure seems broader and deeper. Krugman seems to be among those that doubt a short-term rebound, and increasingly is opening the door to a broader depression/collapse scenario.

As a futurist, this is a wild situation to assess. We're so conditioned to temper extreme predictions that it's almost counter-intuitive to speculate about impending collapse. But it's also our social responsibility to discuss the possibility, in the proper context.

Personally, I think this merits Fourth Turning speculation. Seems like big punctuated shift is coming as our system is forced to get smarter and more efficient. But I could also see a near-term stock rebound. But then again, a lot of people I know are losing their jobs - many smart socially beneficial start-ups, which speaks to general market inefficiency and potentially explosive unemployment. And so forth... -- So many data points.

What's your perspective on how to go about discussing the wildly variable near-term?

Awww, what does Krugman know? You think he's a Nobel prize winner or some . . . ah.

Never mind.

The crisis goes so deep that it is an inevitable design feature of fiat money itself. Anyone who understands the mechanics of money creation and basic algebra could have predicted that someday the cycle would break. Money supply = debt, but debt = interest + money supply, so money supply += new debt + interest. Basic algebra people. It's so absurd, and so simple, that I can only surmise it to be a great farce designed to cajole us into appreciating real value in ourselves.

Great catch, Jamais!

Krugman can also see the sun spinning round when it comes to "Fuels on the Hill:"


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