New Fast Company: 3 New Economies, Part II
The second part of my "Three Possible Economic Models" post is now up, with extended scenarios for Resilience Economics, Just-in-Time Socialism, and Robonomics.
Resilience Economics (RE) emerged out of the realization that Neoliberal Globalized Corporate Capitalism made money hand-over-fist when everything was working right, but was like a rapidly-spinning top--seemingly stable, but if it hit too rough a patch, it went wildly out of control. The RE world, conversely, is less-lucrative during growth periods, but weathers downturns so well that most folks don't even notice when "recessions" hit. [...]
[Just-in-Time Socialism] While the U.S. went for Resilience Economics in the wake of the Great Retreat, Japan took a different path. Two developments allowed Japan to try something radical--well, two developments plus a population already accustomed to heavy automation and a fledgling government desperate to push Japan in a new direction.
Of the two new technologies, the most visibly critical was the development of the Aoki-Marr Prediction Demand AI in 2016. [...] The other technology key to the success of Just-in-Time Socialism was ultra-rapid 3D printing, bordering on nano-manufacturing. [...]
[Robonomics] The U.S. slowed down, Japan took control, and Europe... well, Europe got wired. Or got weird, depending on your perspective.
On the surface, you still have the same kinds of big companies, same kinds of consumption patterns, same kinds of advertising that you did a few decades earlier. But the twist is that almost nobody works--maybe about 25% of the population engages in income-generating employment, and at least half of that consists of educators, bureaucrats, and the self-employed. Manufacturing, transportation, and most basic services are done with robots, semi-autonomous systems that nobody even pretends have real intelligence, but work well enough to keep the economy humming. Personal service jobs remain in human hands, but those are often performed by recent immigrants, trying to earn the right to a BIG [Basic Income Guarantee] Card.
As always, these are provocations, not predictions. I also only look at the US, Japan, and the EU -- leaving open the question of what happens to China, India, Brazil, South Africa, etc.